Why the best performer doesn’t get promoted, and what the person who did had instead

Picture two colleagues

Picture⁠​‌​​‌‌‌‌​‌​​​‌​​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌‌​​‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌​​​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​​​‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​​​​​‌‌‌​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​‌‌​‌​​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌‌​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​​​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌​​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌‌​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌‌​​​‌​​‌‌​​​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​​‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌‌​​​‌‌​‌​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌​​​​‌‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​​‌​​‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​​​‌‌⁠ two colleagues on the same team, invented for this article. Maya posts the best numbers every quarter. Leo’s are solid, not stellar, but he trains the new hires, runs the weekly meeting when the boss is away, and the regional director knows his name. The manager’s job opens, and Leo gets it.

Maya’s conclusion is the headline of this article. The research tells a stranger story. Often the Mayas do get the job, and that is where the trouble starts. The bigger the job, though, the less the decision looks like a trophy and the more it looks like casting.

The trophy: when stars get promoted, their teams pay

The⁠​‌​​‌‌‌‌​‌​​​‌​​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌‌​​‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌​​​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​​​‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​​​​​‌‌‌​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​‌‌​‌​​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌‌​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​​​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌​​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌‌​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌‌​​​‌​​‌‌​​​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​​‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌‌​​​‌‌​‌​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌​​​​‌‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​​‌​​‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​​​‌‌⁠ economists Alan Benson, Danielle Li and Kelly Shue studied sales workers and their managers. In the working-paper version of their study, covering 214 firms, a salesperson with twice a colleague’s sales was about 14 percent more likely to be promoted. Then the cost appeared. When a new manager’s own sales had been twice as high, each person on their team tended to sell about 7.5 percent less.

The pattern has an old name, the Peter Principle: people tend to rise until they reach their level of incompetence.

Why firms keep handing out a costly trophy

Because⁠​‌​​‌‌‌‌​‌​​​‌​​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌‌​​‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌​​​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​​​‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​​​​​‌‌‌​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​‌‌​‌​​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌‌​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​​​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌​​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌‌​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌‌​​​‌​​‌‌​​​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​​‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌‌​​​‌‌​‌​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌​​​​‌‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​​‌​​‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​​​‌‌⁠ promotion is also a prize. “Sell the most and you move up” is a simple rule, and it keeps the whole sales floor working hard. The researchers concluded that many firms accept weaker managers as the price of that incentive.

They also found its limit. Firms put less weight on sales figures when the management job carries more responsibility, and when frontline staff are already strongly paid for performance. So the bigger the job you want, the less your current output can carry you. Output gets you into the audition. It does not win you the part.

The casting call is a grid with nine boxes

Many⁠​‌​​‌‌‌‌​‌​​​‌​​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌‌​​‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌​​​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​​​‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​​​​​‌‌‌​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​‌‌​‌​​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌‌​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​​​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌​​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌‌​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌‌​​​‌​​‌‌​​​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​​‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌‌​​​‌‌​‌​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌​​​​‌‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​​‌​​‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​​​‌‌⁠ large employers cast their next managers with a “nine-box” grid. A supervisor rates you low, medium or high on performance, which looks backward at what you delivered, and again on potential, a forecast of what you could do. The same economists call such tools nearly ubiquitous in large organizations, and note that potential is the more subjective of the two.

Their study of about 30,000 management-track employees at a large retail chain shows why that matters. Women received higher performance ratings but lower potential ratings, and the potential gap explained up to half of the gender gap in promotions. The ratings were poor forecasts: women went on to outperform male colleagues with the same potential rating.

One finding is uncomfortable. In a working-paper version, staff whom managers rated at high “risk of loss” went on to receive higher potential ratings, more promotions and better pay. Firms, the authors wrote, “essentially reward the threat of exit.” Do not read that as advice to bluff. A threat you do not mean can be called. The honest version is a career conversation in which you make your value visible and say plainly what you want next.

What the person who got the job usually had

1. Proof they already do parts of the next job. Leo ran the weekly meeting. In the sales study, the trait that predicted good managers was experience of selling as part of a team. It did not raise a worker’s chances of promotion, but firms filling bigger management jobs gave it more weight.
2. A sponsor, not just a mentor. A mentor advises you. A sponsor, in the definition used by Sylvia Ann Hewlett’s research team, “uses chips on my behalf” and “advocates for my next promotion.” In the team’s survey of more than 4,000 white-collar workers, a sponsor made people an estimated 22 to 30 percent more likely to ask for a stretch assignment or a raise. Fewer than one in five full-time employees at large companies had one.
3. Results the people filling in the grid have seen. A potential rating rests on what the rater noticed. The regional director knew Leo’s name.
4. A successor ready. If promoting you leaves a hole nobody can fill, the easiest choice is to leave you where you are. Leo had trained the new hires. Maya was irreplaceable, which is not the compliment it sounds like.
5. The credential the gate asks for. In one Harvard Business School study, two-thirds of postings for production supervisors asked for a bachelor’s degree, held by only about one in six people doing the job. Pledges to drop such requirements can be thin: in one large analysis, the change reached fewer than 1 in 700 hires.

Maya’s six-month plan, which you can copy

Back⁠​‌​​‌‌‌‌​‌​​​‌​​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌‌​​‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌​​​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​​​‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​​​​​‌‌‌​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​‌‌​‌​​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌‌​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​​​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌​​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌‌​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌‌​​​‌​​‌‌​​​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​​‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌‌​​​‌‌​‌​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌​​​​‌‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​​‌​​‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​​​‌‌⁠ to our invented Maya.

• Month 1. She tells her manager she wants to lead a team and asks what the next role is really judged on: the criteria, not the job ad.
• Months 1–2. She takes one piece of the manager’s job her boss would be glad to hand over, such as the weekly forecast.
• Months 2–4. She pairs the newest rep with her best accounts, so someone could step into her seat.
• Months 2–6. She delivers one result for a senior leader before asking for sponsorship. In Hewlett’s survey, about nine in ten people agreed that sponsorship should be earned.
• Every month. She reports team outcomes, not just her own numbers.
• Month 6. She books a career conversation: what she has done, what she wants, and what would make her manager confident. If she has a real outside option, she can mention it honestly. She never invents one.

The bottom line

Being⁠​‌​​‌‌‌‌​‌​​​‌​​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌‌​​‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌​​​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​​​‌​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​​​​​‌‌‌​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​‌‌​‌​​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌‌​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌​​​​‌​‌‌‌​‌​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌​‌‌‌​​‌​​‌‌​‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌‌​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌‌​​​‌​​‌‌​​​​​​‌​‌‌​‌​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌​​‌‌‌‌‌​​​​‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌‌​​​‌‌​‌​​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​‌‌‌​‌‌​​‌​​​​‌‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​​‌​​‌‌‌​​‌​‌‌​​​‌‌⁠ the best at your current job earns you consideration, not the role. When you are ready to make your case, our guide to asking for a promotion walks through the conversation. Stop polishing the trophy and start rehearsing the part. The rule: if you cannot name a piece of the next job you already do and a senior person who would argue for you, build those two before you ask.